CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z SUN 30/01 - 06Z MON 31/01 2005
ISSUED: 29/01 19:47Z
FORECASTER: DAHL

General thunderstorms are forecast across the southern Mediterranean including the Ionian and the Aegean Sea.

SYNOPSIS

Mediterranean/SE European upper longwave trough will remain in place through the period ... leaving the Ionian Sea ... Greece and Turkey beneath rather strong SWLY mid/upper flow. Intense shortwave trough ATTM over the N Atlantic is expected to dig SE ... reaching the Baltic Sea towards the end of the FCST period. At low levels ... the latter feature is expected to induce quite intense and large SFC low covering the Nordic Sea and Scandinavia by Sunday afternoon ... with weak low pressure system persisting over the central Mediterranean and SE Europe.

DISCUSSION

...SEE TEXT area...
Slight severe TSTM threat should persist over Greece ... the S Ionian Sea ... the Aegean Sea and parts of Turkey in strongly sheared environment. CAPE will likely remain fairly weak though ... and coverage of severe TSTM events should be rather low. ATTM a SLGT does not appear to be warranted ... but expect an isolated large hail and severe straight-line wind event as well as a tornado or two.

...Norwegian W coast...
A few lightning strikes may occur with shallow convection in strong upslope flow along the Norwegian W coast ... convective contribution to severe wind gusts should be rather low and given expected small coverage of lightning strikes ... neither a TSTM nor a severe convective outlook is not necessary ATTM.

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